Crude: lower highs on the daily

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Crude oil slipped below the ascending trend line formed since January. And this is now a risk for bulls for 3 reasons:

  1. We have made a lower high on the daily/weekly charts in 2021.
  2. We rejected the 88% retracement of the March/May range.
  3. This is also the highs from April 2019.

If you have any crude sensitive currencies (i.e. NOK, CAD) you should be paying closer attention to crude moves in the coming weeks.

USDZAR on the RadAR

The SPX bounced back firmly by EOD ignoring the carnage of the crypo moves today. Many people are scratching their heads, but one of the things I have noticed in recent days is despite the move lower in “stocks” that the EM (Emerging Market) currencies have held up well. And that makes sense to me. When stocks are stronger, so are EM currencies (typically). But the USDZAR is on my radar as it is setting up a reversal pattern, or a descending wedge. RSI is divergent which should make bears a little nervous too. Another observation is the pair not breaking 2019 lows (yet) has also been surprising following the 2021 continued melt up in risk. A move above the descending trend line and horizontal resistance at the 14.2000 level could signal a shift in risk appetite? My radar is up and on now.

EURJPY continues higher, but for how long?

The 133.26 161% Fibonacci extension is coming into view as the EURJPY continues higher, breaking out of the previous wedge from last month. Risks may be looming for the longs near term as the RSI has reached overbought, and whenever this has happened in the last few months it has lead to a near term pullback. While above the 50dma and the 131.00 levels hold as support, long term traders shouldn’t worry. However, near term, we could be in for a pullback towards the 131.65 level which is last week’s lows, or previous wedge resistance.

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